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NAPERVILLE — Speculators closed out February with presumptively massive promoting in Chicago-traded corn and wheat. That promoting has vanished to date in March as funds have seemingly shifted their curiosity to purchasing soybeans and soymeal as Argentine crops additional deteriorate.
Nonetheless, it’s unclear when affirmation of latest investor exercise will arrive on condition that the U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee’s Commitments of Merchants (CoT) report has been disrupted for over a month after a ransomware assault on a third-party supplier.
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CFTC’s final regular publication of CoT, which exhibits the positions of market individuals, was on Jan. 27 for the week ended Jan. 24. It launched knowledge for the weeks ended Jan. 31 and Feb. 7 on Feb. 24 and March 3, respectively. The report is generally revealed on Friday afternoons.
CFTC posted a discover on Feb. 24 that workers would start releasing knowledge at an expedited tempo with the objective to finish the backfill by mid-March, although the March 3 posting made no reference to any such plans. CFTC representatives couldn’t instantly be reached for touch upon Tuesday.
The final time CoT knowledge was severely disrupted was through the U.S. authorities shutdown in late 2018 by way of early 2019. CFTC backfilled knowledge by way of two-per-week releases on Tuesdays and Fridays after the 35-day partial shutdown, and knowledge lastly got here on top of things 11 weeks after the shutdown started.
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LATEST DATA
The week ended Feb. 7, the final obtainable week of CoT knowledge, featured delicate declines throughout most-active CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soy product futures. Cash managers have been internet sellers of all however soymeal futures and choices that week.
Cash managers’ Feb. 7 internet lengthy in CBOT corn futures and choices was simply over 200,000 contracts, pretty bullish for the time of 12 months however much less so than within the prior two years when the lengthy effectively exceeded 300,000 on the date. Cash managers’ gross corn shorts as of Feb. 7 have been probably the most plentiful since October 2020 however nonetheless under common ranges.
Within the 4 weeks ended March 7, most-active CBOT corn is down 6% and CBOT wheat has fallen 7%. Soybeans are unchanged, soyoil is down 3.7% and soymeal is up 1.3%. Essentially the most risky week was the final one in February, when corn and wheat every fell by 7.5%, and beans have been down 4.5%.
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Day by day fund estimates collected by Reuters recommend that between Feb. 8 and March 7, commodity funds have been internet sellers of 42,500 CBOT corn futures and 38,000 CBOT wheat futures. Promoting amongst soybeans and soyoil was predicted at 6,000 and 17,000 futures contracts, respectively, and funds have been pegged as internet patrons of 14,500 meal contracts.
That might put funds near flat in soyoil for the primary time since June 2020, however their internet lengthy in soybeans could be much like the early March 2021 ranges and barely under final 12 months. Funds’ internet lengthy in soybean meal could be record-large per the commerce estimates.
Within the week ended March 7, most-active soybean futures jumped 2.5% and soybean meal rose 4.4%, reaching a three-week excessive on Tuesday of $498 per quick ton. Prolonged drought is inflicting a nightmare rising season for prime soy product exporter Argentina, which can produce its worst relative crop in a number of a long time.
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Nonetheless, most-active soybean oil on Tuesday touched its lowest ranges since late July, falling 3% through the session.
CBOT corn and wheat have lately traded as if the Ukraine grain export deal will likely be prolonged earlier than its March 18 expiration regardless of Russia’s resistance. Most-active wheat on Tuesday reached its lowest worth since September 2021 ($6.89-1/2 per bushel).
Within the first 5 classes of March, corn and wheat averaged $6.36 and $7.05 per bushel, respectively, in contrast with averages of $6.75 and $7.65 all through most of February. Most-active corn is buying and selling at its lowest ranges since August.
The managed cash internet quick in CBOT wheat as of Feb. 7 was 71,391 futures and choices contracts, and commerce estimates peg that topping 100,000 contracts in actual time. That is perhaps too aggressive given open curiosity ranges, although it’s secure to say funds maintain an unusually bearish stance in Chicago wheat.
However it’s potential the commerce is underestimating corn promoting, doubtlessly considerably, based mostly on comparable durations. Most lately, cash managers slashed almost 120,000 corn futures and choices contracts from their internet lengthy within the 4 weeks ended Dec. 6 on a 4.5% fall in futures. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.
(Writing by Karen Braun Modifying by Matthew Lewis)
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