Some will blame an absence of blockbuster information being made throughout the pandemic. Some will blame an absence of emergent trendy superstars. And a few (hello Merck!) will blame the truth that younger folks – as evinced by Kate Bush’s present world-beating recognition – are merely having fun with ‘previous’ music as if it had been ‘new’ music.
However information is information: ‘Present’ music in the US isn’t simply dropping market share. It’s really getting statistically much less in style.
It exhibits that ‘Whole Album Consumption’ of ‘Present’ recorded music in the US within the first half of 2022 fell 1.4% in quantity versus the equal metric from the identical interval of 2021.
Clearly, the phrases in inverted commas there might do with somewhat unpicking, so right here goes:
- Luminate’s ‘Whole Album Consumption’ (TAC) metric combines all on-demand observe streams, plus all observe downloads, plus all album gross sales on digital and bodily codecs;
- The formulation for ‘TAC’ equates 1,250 premium streams, or 3,750 ad-supported streams, to at least one album ‘sale’;
- It additionally equates 10 digital observe purchases/downloads to at least one album ‘sale’;
- As well as, Luminate defines ‘Present’ as something launched within the 18 months previous to it getting streamed/downloaded/bought;
- Something older than 18 months when it’s streamed/downloaded/bought is outlined as ‘Catalog’.
In its H1 report (obtain right here), Luminate reveals that there have been 131.3 million album-sale-equivalent models (TAC) of ‘Present’ music registered in the US within the first six months of this 12 months.
That was down by almost 2 million models on the 133.1 million TAC models recorded within the first half of the prior 12 months (2021).
To reiterate: We’re not simply speaking about declining market share right here.
We’re speaking about ‘Present’ music really getting much less in style when it comes to the amount of streams and gross sales it attracts.
This all needs to be understood within the context of a rising market.
In response to Luminate, Whole Album Consumption of all music in the US ( that’s ‘Present’ + ‘Catalog’) grew by 9.3% YoY in H1 2022 to 475.4 million.
This may solely imply one factor: Whereas the recognition of ‘Present’ music shrunk within the first half of this 12 months, the recognition of ‘Catalog’ music grew significantly, up by 14.0% YoY to 344.1 million TAC models.
In flip, the market share of ‘Catalog’ continues to dwarf ‘Present’ music: Luminate’s report exhibits that ‘Catalog’ took a 72.4% market share in H1 2022, as ‘Present’ music’s share fell by a full 3% to only 27.6%.
A rising sample…
This isn’t really the primary time that ‘Present’ music’s recognition has shrunk in actual quantity phrases in the US – it’s simply the most recent chapter in a post-Covid lockdown development.
Luminate’s full-year report for 2021 (obtain right here) confirmed that ‘TAC’ models of ‘Present’ music within the 12 calendar months of final 12 months stood at 269.5 million, down 3.7% on the 279.9 million models recorded in FY 2020 (see beneath).
Once more, we’re not simply speaking a few discount in market share for ‘Present’ music right here, however a discount in precise streams/gross sales.
The streaming story…
Don’t suppose that ‘Present’ music’s recognition is someway simply being pushed down by the decline of the CD, or different codecs exterior of streaming, both.
One of many extra shocking stats in Luminate’s newest report (see beneath) exhibits that within the US in H1 2022, the amount of on-demand audio streams of ‘Present’ music, particularly, fell 2.6% YoY.
And the autumn in ‘Present’ music’s recognition on video streaming platforms (-10.4% in quantity YoY) was much more extreme.
In the meantime, says Luminate, ‘Catalog’ music noticed a 19.0% YoY enhance in its streaming quantity within the first half of 2022.
An absence of ‘excessive impacting’ releases?
So what’s driving these numbers?
Luminate makes an attempt to supply some solutions in its H1 2022 report, noting: “This development is obvious within the measurable decline in ‘excessive impacting’ new releases general, that are outlined as [any] album that debuts on the Billboard 200.”
“In Q2 of 2021,” says Luminate, “there have been 126 ‘excessive impacting’ releases. By the tip of Q2 of 2022, there have been solely 102.”
So we all know that blockbuster new albums hitting the higher echelons of the US charts have gotten much less frequent.
However what about the opportunity of a decline within the energy of blockbuster streaming tracks?
MBW has crunched the numbers on the High 10 audio streaming midyear hits in the US for the previous 4 years, in line with Luminate/MRC Knowledge/Nielsen Music’s H1 reviews.
(i.e. We’ve checked out reviews displaying the preferred on-demand audio tracks within the first six months of every 12 months within the US, and added them up.)
You’ll be able to see how that comparability appears beneath.
Easy model: The High 10 audio streaming tracks within the US in H1 2022 had been performed, cumulatively, over 1 billion instances lower than they had been in H1 2019 (2.74bn vs. 3.81bn).
[We stress that the below is not official Luminate data; it is based on MBW calculations from data published in official midyear reports of Luminate / MRC Data / Nielsen Music.]
Why ‘Catalog’ can – and infrequently does – imply ‘music launched the opposite 12 months’…
We shouldn’t, nevertheless, bounce to any apparent conclusions about golden oldie ‘catalog’ music gobbling up the listenership of right this moment’s youngsters (Sure, even when Kate Bush’s Operating Up That Hill is nonetheless the No.1 international music on Spotify proper now, almost two months after it premiered in that episode of Stranger Issues.)
In response to Luminate’s H1 2022 report, over a 3rd of all ‘Catalog’ streams that occurred within the US within the first half of this 12 months had been really performs of music launched between 2017 and 2019 (see beneath).
(‘Catalog’, keep in mind, merely means music that was launched 18 months or extra earlier than somebody performed/bought it.)
Music initially launched in 2019 alone took a 14% share of all ‘Catalog’ streams in H1 2022; music initially launched in 2018 took an 11% share.
And music initially launched in both of those years was extra in style on US streaming companies within the first half of 2022 than all music launched within the Nineteen Nineties mixed.
Identical goes for all music launched within the Nineteen Eighties, and all music launched within the Seventies.
The larger image…
Nonetheless, it’s much less ‘the rise of Catalog’ that may trigger the music enterprise huge questions right here than it’s the statistical decline of recent music’s recognition.
- ‘Present’ music, keep in mind, fell 2.6% YoY in the US when it comes to on-demand audio streaming quantity in H1 2022;
- It additionally fell 10.4% YoY when it comes to on-demand video streaming quantity;
- But general on-demand audio streaming quantity, says Luminate, was up by a really wholesome 24.7% in H1 2022 (to 1.6 trillion);
- And general on-demand video streaming quantity was up by 28.1% YoY to 901.5 billion.
The quantity of music streams continues to leap up by double digits, year-on-year, on this planet’s largest music market.
However, for no matter motive, ‘new’ music – be it a brief development, or a sample with extra permanence – is formally dropping floor.Music Enterprise Worldwide